Quick update – we’ve updated the system to display the predicted admissions outcome for each applicant on each school’s page. For example, if you visit the page of University of Illinois you’ll see that the model predicts admission to that school about 75% of the time.
At the University of Virginia, it predicts admission correctly about 62% of the time, while at the University of Pennsylvania, it’s right over 80% of the time.
What do you think of the accuracy, or of the predictions in general?
Tags: mychances, prediction, selectivity index
I’ve always been interested in how MyChances determines the probability of admissions – which factors are taken into account besides GPA and SAT? Any chance us college-bound nerds could take a peek at the model/formula being used?
For many schools at the present moment, the formula is fairly simple (essentially sat, gpa, class rank in a quadratic transformation). At others, it is more complicated, taking other factors into account. Brent and I are going to update these models soon, enhancing the system with some of the factors (including HS info) that we recently started collecting. Once we’ve done that, we’ll figure out how we’ll publish the formulas that are in use.
We would really like to see these formulas, and they are quite impressive. Thanks for your work, and we’ll see wehere I end up in the next 4 years.