http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/ Data-driven college admission prediction Sun, 18 Oct 2009 07:23:51 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/comment-page-1/#comment-217 James Sat, 27 Sep 2008 03:09:13 +0000 http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/#comment-217 @Barrington: Looking at Fordham, we have very few people who have reported rejections. If those 4 people are representative of the general group of students not admitted, then the model could be right. I agree with you that it could be too optimistic. @Barrington: Looking at Fordham, we have very few people who have reported rejections. If those 4 people are representative of the general group of students not admitted, then the model could be right. I agree with you that it could be too optimistic.

]]> http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/comment-page-1/#comment-216 James Sat, 27 Sep 2008 03:05:55 +0000 http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/#comment-216 I'd have to look at Fordham and see how well its model is working... Dunno, if you've got high stats, it could be correct. It would suggest that if you applied 20 times, the model expects you to get in 19 of them. So yeah, that's a pretty bold statement. I’d have to look at Fordham and see how well its model is working… Dunno, if you’ve got high stats, it could be correct. It would suggest that if you applied 20 times, the model expects you to get in 19 of them. So yeah, that’s a pretty bold statement.

]]> http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/comment-page-1/#comment-214 Barrington Sat, 27 Sep 2008 03:01:05 +0000 http://www.mychances.net/blog/2008/09/25/update-probabilities-now-mean-something/#comment-214 I had a university (Fordham) go from 50-something to 96%. I'm assuming 96% isn't entirely right. I had a university (Fordham) go from 50-something to 96%. I’m assuming 96% isn’t entirely right.

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