Prediction Accuracy

Better than a coin toss

The model that we use to predict acceptance to the schools that we keep track of succeeds at predicting about 75% of admissions results. That's way better than flipping a coin, and it's better than we expected considering that we know little more than scores and some basic demographic information.

Caveats:
The fact that we can't predict 25% of results clearly means that you should not take a prediction as a guaranteed result.

For most schools we're still dealing with a small amount of data. Schools with little data won't give reliable predictions given the statistical methods that we're using.

Even for schools where we've got plenty of data, the subset of people who use this site is most likely skewed.

You ≠ Numbers