Bayesian analysis

From MyChances

Bayesian analysis is the use of inference to modify predictions.

In Bayesian analysis, priors are the probabilities that you initially believe. For example, on this site, your priors might be the prediction given by the models. Posteriors are the updated probabilities that you obtain after applying the Bayes method to your priors. For example, suppose you apply to UCLA and Stanford, and you get into Stanford. Suppose that 90% of everyone who gets into Stanford also gets into UCLA. You might use this knowledge to update your beliefs about your probability of getting into UCLA.